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2005
NFL NFC Preview & Forecast
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Who will make it to the playoffs in the NFC? Using a Super Computer, the StatShark simulation engine has played all regular season games 10,000 times each. Because quality of teams varies greatly within and between conferences, the best NFL teams are not necessarily the ones with the best odds of making the playoffs. StatShark's value is in showing how a team's performance within their conference and division translates to play-off contention. During each simulated season the super computer has tabulated the number of times that each team made the playoffs either as a division winner or as a wild-card. In the event of a tie StatShark reviews the record the tying teams had vs. each other and their conference records. In a small number of cases the tie-breaker rules were inconclusive. StatShark has also tabulated the number of victories each team had in each simulation. The second table below shows the exact probability that each team has of winning anywhere from 16 victories down to 0 victories. |
PROBABILITY
OF REACHING 2005 NFL PLAYOFFS (NFC)
PROBABILITY
- NUMBER OF GAMES WON 2005
Forecast Data Provided by: StatShark
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NFC
EAST
WASHINGTON
STATSHARK ANALYST: As you read further, you'll see that this team
has the opportunity to play several bad teams and inflate their win total.
This is a classic case where making the Play-Offs or winning 9+ games
is not necessarily the result of having a good team, but a matter of
being in a good situation.
SPORTS DOG: Year two of the second coming of Joe Gibbs has us
saying, "what?" Sticking with a shaky Patrick Ramsey and the loss of
quality receiver Rod Gardner (who was tied for the team lead in TDs)
has us scratching our heads. Portis should improve on last year's numbers
and a soft schedule will have the Skins with a chance at a playoff berth.
DALLAS
STATSHARK ANALYST: This is a team that StatShark must closely
monitor in the Pre-Season and early season in order to determine if the
2003 defensive unit was more indicative of 2005 performance than last
year's team was. Even if the defense is revitalized there are no indications
that their offense will significantly improve. The 2nd half of last year,
Julius Jones played great but it still led to anemic point totals with
the exception of an explosion vs. Seattle.
SPORTS DOG: Dallas may have had the best draft in the entire league
and clearly were hell-bent on solidifying a defense that went backwards
fast last season. Anchoring around Roy Williams and LeRoi Glover; the
Pokes D-unit will be much improved. The offense will rely heavily on
two intangibles: can Julius Jones string together a season's worth of
production like he did towards the end of the season? And which Drew
Bledsoe shows up. Most likely to finish with 7 or 8 wins; Dallas could
sneak into a wild-card berth if their offense shows up.
NEW YORK GIANTS
STATSHARK ANALYST: The Meadlowlands will be a Jets Stadium this
year since the Giants don't look to give their fans too much to cheer
about.
SPORTS DOG: Two words describe the Giants situation: Eli Manning.
How fast he matures as a player will be the measuring stick of the season.
Even if he makes decent strides; this is a rebuilding year for the G-Men
and a very Spartan draft didn't help with only 4 picks total.
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NFC NORTH
GREEN BAY
STATSHARK ANALYST: The team is well-positioned for regular season
success and won a very strong 63% of simulations. Regular season success
is definitely not the same as post-season success and the troubling tendency
of Brett Favre to throw a staggering number of interceptions in the toughest
games is a trend that should trouble Packer fans.
SPORTS DOG: Father Time, aka Brett Favre, continues to play although
this is most likely his last hurrah. Assuming everyone plays healthy,
the Pack has a very good shot at capturing the division. What happens
after that is anybody's guess. Doubt they will go far but then again
I wouldn't bet against Favre when he is motivated and certainly, he'd
like to go out on top like Elway.
MINNESOTA
STATSHARK ANALYST: The team has Culpepper and many talented players
(both receivers and running backs), but consistency in the tough match-ups
is in doubt. They should be able to muster 8+ wins and qualify as a Wild
Card.
SPORTS DOG: The Vikings without Moss? Hard to say what happens
there. I think they'll be neck and neck with Green Bay for the division
crown, this will certainly be a team to watch this year.
DETROIT
STATSHARK ANALYST: : This team has a lot of upside. The odds that
they exceed their predicted average of 6 or 7 wins is much higher than
their odds of winning under 6. If their 3-headed WR monster (R. Williams,
M. Williams, C. Rogers) is healthy along with increasing restrictions
on defenses, you can imagine an extremely potent offense with these 3
single covered.
SPORTS DOG: : No more excuses. Potentially the greatest assemblage
of receivers since the Redskins of the 70's, Joey Harrington will find
the door real fast if they don't produce out of the gate or damn near
it.
CHICAGO
STATSHARK ANALYST: The team aggressively pursued Muhsin Muhammed
and were wise in drafting Cedric Benson. Obviously, the player's effectiveness
will be diminished by the weak QB situation. Chicago fans can't expect
Muhammed to get 100 receptions in this offense.
SPORTS DOG: Bears have more holes in their team than Bonnie and
Clyde's get-away car. Drafting Cedric Benson, potentially one of the
best backs in the draft in a few years was the equivalent of a hail-mary
pass that someone will certainly knock down.
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NFC SOUTH
ATLANTA
STATSHARK ANALYST: : Like most football analysts, StatShark "likes" teams
that run the ball and play defense. You throw in a difference maker
like Michael Vick and you get a clear Division favorite and a strong
chance of repeating.
SPORTS DOG: From 5-11 the year before to 11-5 last year. How
much of that was Vick's injury? This will be a very telling season
for the Dirty Birds. As the team that is slightly better than the rest
in the division they will benefit by the other 3 teams beating up on
each other and splitting most head-to-head match-ups.
CAROLINA
STATSHARK ANALYST: Slight favorite for #2 position. The RB situation
is confusing at the moment, but regardless of who ends up being the
starter the team should improve from last year and be a serious wild-card
threat.
SPORTS DOG: Not moving up or down much, Carolina looks to be
back in the same boat as last year. Certainly, a tad more stability
at RB will help them some but how much an effect the loss of Mohammed
has remains to be seen. The return of Steve Smith will help offset
the loss.
NEW ORLEANS
STATSHARK ANALYST: Deuce McAllister played most of last year
pretty banged up. The team has excellent offensive talent, but they
always have. This team doesn't look capable of taking a next step beyond
mediocrity.
SPORTS DOG: Yet another of those teams with the talent on paper
but never seem to be able to put it all together. If they could just
keep Joe Horn off the cell phone.
TAMPA BAY
STATSHARK ANALYST: It's a competitive division when the projected
worst team in the division is decimal points difference from the 2nd
place team in average win total. The fact is you could re-order this
division at random and StatShark would not be surprised by who actually
wins.
SPORTS DOG: Talk about intangibles! Is this Brian Griese's year?
How well will Cadillac Williams adapt to the NFL? Look for Williams
to get the bulk of the caries early on and never look back. The defense
is nothing like it's former self though and that will have an impact.
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NFC WEST
SEATTLE
STATSHARK ANALYST: As we were going to the presses, news reports
said Shaun Alexander was willing to go through a long holdout to get
a multi-year deal. His loss could certainly impact the odds reported
above. We will carefully monitor the situation and update the figures
when his status is clarified.
SPORTS DOG: The Seahawks looks poised to eek into the playoffs
once again thanks in part to the NFC being as weak as it is and also
in thanks to very soft NFC West rivals. Don't count on them to go too
far though.
ST. LOUIS
STATSHARK ANALYST: StatShark indicates this team is running on
reputation. They have stellar WRs, but the team really does not put up
great points against any decent defense. The pass first offense inflates
Bulger's passing yard totals, but his relatively low TD total shows that
this team is not the "greatest show on turf".
SPORTS DOG: or reloading? Who knows but the Rams are clearly not
in the class they were a few years back. The data suggests that they
are more likely to slide slightly backwards from last year as opposed
to inch forward.
ARIZONA
STATSHARK ANALYST: This is a soft division and this team could
potentially capitalize on disappointing performances from the current
projected Division leaders. They keep seemingly every game close. Hopefully
Warner plays steadily and doesn't try to force too many passes resulting
in game turning interceptions.
SPORTS DOG: The Cards look like they will repeat the outcome of
last year: flickers of hope but falling short. Then again, there are
a lot of intangibles with this team: year two of Dennis Green, Kurt Warner,
etc. so keep an eye on them.
SAN FRANCISCO
STATSHARK ANALYST: Empires rise and fall. Unfortunately, you don't
see a lot of empires fall and get back up again. Right now SF is as relevant
as the Ottoman Empire --- once dominated the known world, but unless
you were there to see it, you might as well be talking about furniture.
Bad analogy. SF is going to struggle.
SPORTS DOG: Don't expect much out of the 'Niners other than frustration.
It will be a year or two at least before they attain respectability again.
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