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Mid-Season NCAA Football thoughts by the Wunderdog

In week 8, Texas flexed its muscle, while SC barely scraped by. We are left with is pretty clear picture as the first BCS standings were released this week.  From where I sit, Texas is clearly the class of the country this season. Here I take a look at each conference and project BCS match-ups for January.

Big 12
Texas laid claim last week and gets another opportunity to do so this week with Texas Tech traveling to Austin. Vince Young is the best player in the conference and possibly the country. He was 25-29 two weeks ago against a Colorado defense that had shutdown just about everyone they had played prior and he had no trouble with Texas Tech. The difference with this Texas team this season is that they are firing on all cylinders, and should continue to do so.  Barring a huge slip-up in the Big 12 Championship game a la Oklahoma two years ago, I see no way they miss the Rose Bowl and BCS championship this season.

Surprise Team – I go with Nebraska. Despite their record, I am still not overly impressed with this bunch of Huskers. They have found ways to win, albeit against a rather easy schedule.  Their schedule is favorable down the home stretch and they could be 8-2 when they head to Boulder in November.  Of course, they have been squeaking by the skin of their teeth and could easily lose the rest of the games on their schedule.  Baylor has also been a surprise in the Big 12 this season and are probably one year away from a very solid season.

Disappointment – Tie between Iowa State and Oklahoma.  I thought OU might have a tough time living up to the high expectations that had been set due to their previous teams which have been loaded with older talented players. There is still a ton of talent in Norman, it is just very green talent. That being said, they could easily win out and get to a good bowl game. Even if they do, that loss at home to TCU was just plain bad. Iowa State were the media darling to win the Big 12 North this season and everyone assumed they were right when the Clones hammered Iowa 23-3 early in the season. A funny thing happened on the way to the Big 12 schedule. ISU’s running game and OL in general has disappeared, and their defense has had a tough time stopping opponents on third down.

SEC
Georgia looks like the most complete football team in this conference right now. Alabama, Auburn, and LSU all probably have something to say about that but all of those teams have holes, which could kill them anytime they take the field.

Surprise Team –  Right now it has to be Georgia. No one expected DJ Shockley to come out and play the way he has. His versatility has added another dimension that was not present when David Greene quarterbacked the Dawgs. The defense was expected to carry this team, and it has lived up to that billing, but the offense has continued to be stellar, even in absorbing the losses of Greene and standout wide-out Reggie Brown. I now see the Dawgs possibly losing a couple of games depending upon the health of Shockley but they certainly have had a tremendous season so far.

Disappointment – Hard to say here, but there sure were a lot of expectations heaped on Urban Meyer upon his arrival to Gainesville. He has been upset with his team, which looked poised to be a big story after beating Tennessee, only to be crushed by Alabama. They then dropped a game they should have won last week in Baton Rouge, causing Meyer to shed a few tears in his press conference.  is team is talented, but it will take time for Meyer to instill his will and dedication into this program. Overall, no one has been a major disappointment.

Big Ten
Stories abound over the first half of the Big Ten season. Iowa fell flat on its face out of the box, only to have a resurgence of sorts recently setting up a huge game with Michigan last weekend. They lost one that they could have (many say should have) won. Penn State stormed out of the box, making many fans forget about their calls for JoePa’s retirement only months ago. PSU should drop a few more games this season but they are well positioned for the future.

Surprise Team – Hands down Penn State. Two freshman, have stepped in and played like seniors, leading this team to a great start that has Happy Valley brewing with confidence. Last weekend’s loss was crushing but more crushing is the loss of star frosh to a broken arm. They dismantled the Illini this weekend, and probably could have scored 100 had Paterno not called off the troops.

Disappointment - I ’d have to say Iowa at this point but a lot of ball is left to be played in the Big Ten. Iowa was embarrassed by Iowa State which now looks like a horrible loss anyway you cut it. Iowa has every chance to rebound in this conference, but they have no hope anymore for the Big Ten title, which they were favored to win at the outset of the season.

PAC – 10
USC is the class of this conference, but I think they’ll lose a game this season, with Cal and UCLA yet to have played the Trojans. The Trojans defense is a shadow of its former self, and ranks only 45th in the country in total defense. Still, Leinhart and Bush are both one of a kind players and they make USC nearly unbeatable in college football. Charlie Weis compared Bush to Marshall Faulk the other night, and that seems like a pretty good one for Bush. SC’s defense will need to step it up if they expect to compete for their third National Championship in three years. I think they narrowly miss it this year.

Surprise Team – UCLA to date has been the surprise posting an undefeated record to date and looking like they should be 10-0 when they play SC later this fall. Maurice Drew has been spectacular this season as has QB Olsen. Things are interesting on the other side of the ball, however, as the UCLA run defense can be likened to swiss cheese. They could easily lose a game prior to the showdown looming with SC.

Disappointment – Arizona State was supposed to have a coming out party this season but have come crashing to the earth after close losses to LSU and USC. Their loss to Stanford last weekend was terrible, and this team has loads of talent. They still have a date with UCLA which should be a battle that the Devils could win. They’ll need to to erase any lingering pain from a tough season of missed opportunities.

ACC
I think this is the best conference in the country this season with Miami, Florida State, and Virginia Tech all top tier teams. Hard to say who is the best right now, but my bet is that the Canes are still the best in the conference at the end of the season. Kyle Wright is improving with each passing week, making the Canes only potential weakness, their offense, disappear.

Surprise Team – Boston College was supposed to be this good, but it still was a question mark heading in due to the jump from the Big Least to the ACC. They have played very well this season losing only to Florida State in a game where turnovers killed them. They have a huge game this Thursday in Blacksburg against the Hokies on national television. It is a monster opportunity for BC to announce its presence in the ACC with authority.

Disappointment –  Hard to say that anyone has really been a disappointment this season in the ACC, but you can make an argument for Georgia Tech, who at 4-2 was exceeding expectations this season. They, then, had a horrible loss to NC State, who has been exposed as a weaker team of late. Still, the Jackets are 4-2 and have a ton of talent, and will be bowling in December or January this season.

Big East
Again, why does the Big East still have an automatic bid into the BCS? Looks like West Virginia will be the benefactor this season, and will again be overmatched by a team more deserving of making one of the four games. WVU lucked out this weekend when their game against South Florida was postponed due to Wilma. Louisville has been a disappointment thus far and might continue to be.  Their defense is not playing like it did one year ago. This conference will undergo a facelift over the next couple of seasons and I see South Florida and Louisville as the two teams emerging and taking over supremacy.

Surprise Team – South Florida gained little to no recognition when they joined this conference but that all changed one fall night this season when they thumped Louisville 45-14. They have been playing good football, and are probably a couple of years away. They’ll start to lure some good talent from Florida which could spell trouble for the Big Least. They play West Virginia this weekend at home, and two home wins against the Mountaineers and Cardinals will go along ways towards establishing this football program.

Disappointment – That sound you heard was all the big talk outta Louisville, Kentucky getting squashed by South Florida. For a program that really thought it had arrived, they have had a tough season. You have to wonder if Petrino will listen to offers this off-season from big time programs in big time conferences. Louisville will not leave the Big East because of basketball, and the Big East is a joke of a football conference. This may be Petrino’s last chance for the fat pay check from a Big Time BCS program. Pitt has also been a disappointment and will not go bowling this season for Dave Wannestadt. He’ll be on the hot seat for the next two seasons and the rest of this one as well.

Rose Bowl – USC vs. Texas – I think Texas is the best team in the country, and they have the clearest path to Pasedena. What a treat it will be to watch Vince Young and Reggie Bush on the same field.

Orange Bowl – Miami vs. Notre Dame – This match-up would be a blast to the past. No one has slowed Notre Dame’s offense this season, but I think Miami could here. Notre Dame’s defense, however, matches up well with the Canes offense. This would be a great game but the Irish have some tough remaining games which could end their BCS postseason hopes and dreams.

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs. Virginia Tech – Another great match-up against two great defenses.  Alabama will have its hands full with LSU and Auburn down the stretch. If they are able to go 1-1, they should still land here. They’ll obviously need to beat LSU, but count me in the group that questions the greatness of this LSU bunch.

Fiesta Bowl – West Virginia vs. Penn State – Joe Pa returns to Sun Devil stadium, a place that has been good to him over the years. Penn State has played very well and really should win out this season. If they are able to accomplish that, this is where they land and they trounce WVU and the Big Least.

Outside but barely…..Georgia will miss Shockley but if they get by the Gators and he is able to return…look out. UCLA, if it can get to 10-0 prior to its date with SC, might have the most to say about the National title picture. Of course, LSU still controls its own destiny as well, but they have a ton of holes and it is clear that they miss Saban in the locker room and on the sideline as well.