Wunderdog's NCAA BASKETBALL PICK OF THE WEEK

2004 Week ending April 3rd

OKLAHOMA STATE vs. GEORGIA TECH
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Line: Oklahoma State -4.5

RELEVANT STATS: TECH
-Points per Game on Road: 75.8
-Points Allowed on Road: 70.6
-Field Goal % on the Road: 46.2
-Free Throw % on the Road: 72
-Three Point % on the road: 35
-Rebounds per Road Game: 38
-Turnovers per Road Game: 15

RELEVANT STATS: O.K. STATE
-Points per Game on Road: 73.2
-Points Allowed on Road: 66.8
-Field Goal % on the Road - 50.3
-Free Throw % on the Road - 71
-Three Point % on the road - 36
-Rebounds per Road Game - 34
-Turnovers per Road Game - 13

RELEVANT TRENDS FAVORING GEORGIA TECH:
Oklahoma State is 2-8 ATS after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Georgia Tech is 7-1 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams after 15+games over the last 3 seasons.

RELEVANT TRENDS FAVORING OKLAHOMA STATE:
Georgia Tech is 1-5 ATS versus good defensive teams after 15+ games this season. Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams after 15+ games this season. Georgia Tech is 2-8 ATS in road games when their opponents make 38% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 3 seasons.

GAME ANALYSIS
Another intriguing match-up will kick off Final Four Saturday in San Antonio. The real question is: Which Cowboys team will show up on Saturday? OSU was very lucky to escape New Jersey last weekend, needing a John Lucas three pointer to squeak by St. Joseph's. Tony Allen played his worst game of the year, often over-dribbling instead of relying on Eddie Sutton's offense for easy baskets. Georgia Tech held off a late Kansas rally to get to San Antonio and has become the most compelling story left in the tournament. They won twice in the sweet sixteen without their leading scorer, BJ Elder. Word out of San Antonio has Elder ready to contribute tomorrow which will be big for the Yellow Jackets. These two teams are very evenly matched throughout their respective lineups and statistics. The Cowboys have not been this far in a long time. They looked rattled last weekend, badly missing jump shots throughout the game. This line offers value to bettors with a large 4.5 point spread, rare for such a big game against two evenly matched basketball teams. If the line stays put, I like the Yellow Jackets to cover the spread. Georgia Tech is playing very well right now, and Elder's return will be large for their psyche. If Tony Allen turns in another performance like last Saturday, Georgia Tech may win this game outright. Keep in mind that 2 seeds do not perform well, historically speaking, in the Final Four, while 3 seeds seem to excel on the big stage. I'll take the points with Georgia Tech for one unit.

RESULT: Georgia Tech 67, Oklahoma State 65 - WIN!

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