Free Baseball Picks - July 03, 2009

We nailed both of our MLB plays yesterday including our 5-unit pick- good for +5.7 units! Over the last three weeks, we are hitting 59% at 57-39 for +36.7 units! Today we roll out picks in five games including another 5-unit pick!

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	32-21 last 53 picks	60%	+$2990
MLB	57-39 last 96 picks	59%	+$3670
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$26440

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Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Atlanta at Washington (6:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Washington +1.5 runs -140 (runline) (risk 5 to win 3.6)

The Atlanta Braves have not been a good road team over the last year and a half, and have won just three of their last nine on the road. Kenshin Kawakami has pitched reasonably well, but not on the road, where the Braves are just 2-4 in his six road starts with one a loss to Washington. The Braves are sporting just a 13-29 record as a road favorite, and in the range applicable to this matchup, from -110 to -150 they are a dreadful 9-24. The Nats have not been a good team home or away over the last several years, but there is one thing they are really good at, and that is beating the Braves when they come to Washington. As bad as they have been, the Nats certainly don't play like it against Atlanta. They are 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Washington, so I'll grab them here on the runline.

There are a lot of folks out there with a man-crush on Zack Greinke. How else would you explain a team that is 33-45 being instilled as a nice-sized favorite against a winning team? Yes, Greinke has been very good, but let's not forget that the Royals are just 8-8 on the runline with him on the mound - including 0-6 in his last six starts! He keeps opponents down, but the problems for the Royals are two-fold. First off, the bullpen that comes in late is sporting a 5.23 ERA at home. Second, he just doesn't get much run support as KC is averaging only 3.9 runs per game. Over their past seven games, the Royals are getting only 2.1 runs per game. Compare that the 6.1 per game that the Sox have produced. Asking the Royals to win this game by 2+ runs is simply asking too much. This season the White Sox are 25-7 against the +1.5 run line (at odds between -135 and -190) and I really like them here in that same situation.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been futile on the road as they have a 1-5 mark in their last six road games. One of the biggest reasons is that they have scored just 16 runs, or 2.7 per game. They have already been shutout five times on the road, and have had a total of 13 games scoring two runs or less on the highway. That makes for a difficult time taking on a Rockies team that is red hot. The Rockies are scoring nearly six runs per game this season at home, and have won 10 of their last 12 here. The D-Backs are just 18-39 in their last 57 as a road dog, while the Rockies are on a 21-5 run in their last 26 games and are also 19-7 in their last 26 against a right-hand starter. I’m going with the hot hand here and playing the Rockies.

The Rockies have been on fire, and still under the radar. You don't look at this team like the Red Sox or Yankees, but the numbers don't lie, as when they win, they win big. The Red Sox and Yankees lead baseball with 35 wins apiece by two runs or more on the season, but under the radar come the Rockies with 34! The difference is in the value, as none is found on the Sox or Yanks, but right with them win for win on the moneyline is the Rockies - without the taxed price. I'll go with the Rockies here on the runline.

The Padres have been dreadful on the road this season, but certainly much more competitive at home where they have matched the Dodgers road win total at 22. The Dodgers have 50 wins already on the season, best in baseball, but they have been playing much below that level for the last three weeks at just 10-9. The Dodgers enter this one just 3-7 in Kuroda's last 10 starts on the road with a total of 7-8.5. Chad Gaudin has been very good in the role of an underdog, as the Padres are now 4-1 when he was listed as a dog from +110 to +150. I like the Padres to win on the runline in this one.

I like the fact that the Giants are rolling at home with a 24-12 mark, but what doesn't get seen is what they have done overall. The Giants are tied with the Rockies for the most wins by 2+ runs on the season at 34, trailing only the Yanks and Red Sox in MLB that share the lead with 35. That number gets stronger as 12 of the Giants last 14 home wins have come by two runs or more, and with the light-hitting Astros in town, and a SF offense that scores +0.8 runs more at home than on the road, I'll back San Francisco on the runline here.

The Giants have to be one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season. They have played well above expectations and continue to get outstanding pitching. They are an amazing 24-12 at home on the season. Ryan Sadowski has made his contribution and earned a spot in the Giants’ rotation with six innings of shutout baseball in his first start. The Astros are a light-hitting team that has only played eight games on the road against winning National League teams this season and haven't seen one since mid-May, so their road numbers that look decent, are tainted by a weak road schedule. They have not produced with Paulino on the hill as a dog either, as they are 1-6 in his last seven starts as a dog. The Giants are cashing in at 38-18 in their last 56 as a favorite, and I like them here to get the series opener.

Results: 6-1

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-02-2009
Paul Maholm was pitching to a 3.30 ERA through starts of May 20. He has since really struggled, and has been getting pounded. Maholm has allowed 54 hits in the 42 innings, along with 15 walks, and an ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-01-2009
The Seattle Mariners finally caved into the Yankee bats last night as they kept constant pressure on Morrow, and company, and the Bombers prevailed 8-5. The Mariners rely on pitching to win as their o...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-30-2009
We approach the midway point of the 2009 MLB season, and two things are apparent. The Chicago Cubs aren't the same team we saw last year, and their road struggles have been very troubling, as they...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-29-2009
The Twins have not been good on the road this season, and with Nick Blackburn on the hill tonight for this one, those numbers get even worse. Blackburn has put up good numbers this season, enteri...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-28-2009
Philadelphia's bats have been alive this season but they've cooled of late. In their last eleven games, they put up 10 runs twice (including last game). In the other nine games they averaged j...