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2007
NCAA Predictions and Preview
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NCAA Picks for the 2007-2008 season  |
Wunderdog NCAA Basketball Top 20 Predictions
20. KANSAS STATE
Bobby Huggins wasn't here long, but his impact will be felt for a few years. He left behind a recruiting class that ranks among the top in the country, if not the top. Huggins completed a 23-win season, best in nearly 20 years at K-State, and lots of talent is coming in. David Hoskins (14.5, 5.9) returns, but may be pressed for time with the wealth of talent on the way in. Michael Beasley is the nation's top recruit. He is a 6-10 280 lb. world of talent. If he has the same impact here as did Kevin Durant at Texas, K-State will immediately be heard from. Young teams sometimes struggle, but if they make the adjustment, this team could be dangerous late.
19. BUTLER
Any time you have a team with two guards, both capable of Player of the Year honors in their Conference, then you have a team that is going to excel. Butler starts with a team that won 29 games last year, and lost only 11 ppg scorer Brandon Crone. The offense should get a boost from Pete Campbell, who is a good 3-point threat who averaged 9 ppg but will be on the floor much more this season. This is a methodical team that led the nation with the fewest turnovers per game. With the same duo, and key figures handling the ball, expect no difference. This is a team that will cause fits for anyone they match-up with in the tourney, and has Elite Eight potential.
18. ARIZONA
The good news for Arizona is Chase Budinger is back. The bad news is, until this team makes a commitment to defense, they are just another good team. They did lose three double-digit scorers, but Arizona is a team that doesn't rebuild, they reload. There's always enough talent around to do some damage. They added Jerryd Bayless, who by many accounts should compete at the level that Mike Bibby did here. Coach Olsen believes that Jordan Hill will become a double-double player. The question is, will it happen this year? If Jawann McClellon can leave his injuries behind him, he could also emerge as a potent scorer. Here's a team with lots of talent, lots of question marks, so we took the middle ground. They could be great, they could disappoint, but will likely be good.
17. NC STATE
NC State started 1-5 in ACC play last season and reached the Conference Final. Costner, McCauley and Grant - all 15 point scorers - return, as well as another double digit scorer in Courtney Fells. The big question mark for this team will be replacing Engin Atsur at the point. The Pack and Coach Lowe are bringing in six new players. Two of those are Farnold Degand (Iowa State transfer) and Marques Johnson ( Tennessee transfer). They may have an advantage in that they practiced with the team all of last season. There is also the possibility that freshman Javi Gonzalez gets a shot. But in the end, if one of this trio does not emerge, NC State may be a notch below. If one emerges in a big way, they may be a notch above.
16. DAVIDSON
Davidson won a school record 29 games last season. That bodes well for the Wildcats this season as all 5 starters return. They are led by last year's freshman sensation Stephen Curry. Curry scored 21.5 ppg last season, and broke the freshman record for three-pointers with 122. He is a bona fide star, as he poured in 30 vs. Maryland in their NCAA appearance. They have a competent PG in Jason Richards who finished second in the NCAA last year at 7.3 apg. They also have power inside with Boris Meno (11 ppg 8.2 rpg). The Wildcats have 10 players returning that played key minutes, and NCAA experience, and could reach the 30-win mark for the first time ever and be the type of team that no one wants in a first round NCAA game.
15. OREGON
The Ducks made a deep run in the tournament last year, and road the back of Aaron Brooks. He is gone, and will certainly be missed. The Ducks do return their other 4 starters, all of whom are capeable scorers, as they all averaged double-digits last year. The foundation is set for another tournament bid, but just how much quacking these Ducks do, is going to be based on one of the 4 returning starters, stepping into a leadership role, and if Tajuan porter can run the offense. Bryce Taylor has the potential to become the go-to guy. If those two things happen, the Ducks will again be going deep into the tournament, if not, could be one and done.
14. S. ILLINOIS
The Missouri Valley has become a player amongst the elite in College Basketball and among the best in the conference has been S. Illinois. This team is going to be tough to defend inside with Falker and Shaw. They must overcome the losses of Tatum and Young, a guard duo that put up 25 per game and provided a lot of experience. Josh Bone is expected to help do just that. Bone is regarded as having the potential to be the Saluki's next great guard. He will be joined by Wesley Clemmons who must step up his scoring. Carlton Fay adds depth to the front court, as he is a highly regarded freshman. The Saluki's appear to be the class of the MVC, which means a mid-level national ranking is likely.
13. DUKE
The ACC has gone back-to-back years without a Final Four participant for the first time in 27 years. Coach K had something to say about this and was cited as saying, "The ACC has sold its soul in becoming a football conference." Duke will look to rebound from a 22-win season, a .500 finish in the ACC and a knockout punch from VCU in the tourney. The back court is loaded and will be called upon for the bulk of the scoring. They have Nelson, Paulus and Scheyer, all of whom can score. They will really need Kyle Singler, a 6-8 freshman to provide points in the paint. They will miss McRoberts scoring and rebounding inside. Teams historically weak in the paint for points often exit the NCAA tourney with one noight of poor shooting. If Singler isn't the answer inside, the Dukies may again face the prospects of an early exit. If he is, they may be better than advertised as Coach K finally has some depth, which usually isn't the case.
12. INDIANA
This might not be a banner year for the Big-10, but it may turn out to be one for Indiana. The Hoosiers returned to the dance last year. When D.J. White nixed the draft and Eric Gordon committed to Indiana, stocks (and expectations) are up in Bloomington. Eric Gordon, if you believe the scouts, is already an NBA lottery pick candidate. If he plays as a freshman up to this billing, then the Hoosiers will be a team that has Final Four potential. They have lots of pieces returning and six newcomers as well. So how these roles and minutes work themselves out, will go a long way in determining their fate. The key may be senior guard A.J. Ratliff. Ratliff has never lived up to his potential because of nagging injuries, but will this be his year to shine? If he does, and Gordon is as good as billed and the newcomers blend with the vets, pencil this team into Final Four consideration.
11. GONZAGA
This team certainly has upgraded its schedule but remains heads and heels above almost all the pretenders in the West Coast Conference. That means a lot of mid-to-late season wins and a corresponding rise in the polls. Josh Heytvelt will return after off the court problems last season. Heytvelt is an NBA type player, but off-court issues may again be a factor. He is a double-double type player and for Gonzaga to be worthy of a ranking this high, he needs to put all that behind him, and live up to his potential. They have a solid playmaker in Jeremy Pargo that has also become an improved shooter. Micah Downs is a shooting talent and Matt Bouldin is another point guard playing the 2, considered the team's top passer. They also bring in Ira Brown, a JC transfer, that is an athlete. He spent five seasons in minor league baseball. Raivio will be missed, but the Zags keep themselves stocked with talent beyond any of their league foes, and will again be NCAA bound.
10. MARQUETTE
Marquette brings back everyone from an NCAA team that won 24 games last season. The biggest obstacle for Marquette may be timing. They are in the Big East, a conference that features two heavyweights in Louisville and Georgetown that could keep them out of the top ten. But they shouldn't fall far. Dominic James flirted with the NBA draft, but he was hearing he may not go as soon as he would of liked and withdrew. That may catapult James into a very focused big season. He forms one of the top backcourts in the country with running mate Jerel McNeal. McNeal is considered one of the stingiest defenders in the country, but he scores and rebounds as well. Wesley Matthews hasn't reached his full potential yet, and if he adds to his 12.6 ppg this season, Marquette becomes better. Marquette needs more inside presence. Ousmane Barro at 6-10 helped last year (8.1 ppg and 6.9 rpg), but he needs help. It hopefully comes from newcomer Trevor Mbakwe. Mbakwe was rated the top prep player in Minnesota, and if he brings help down low, Marquette could rise to an NCAA Final Four caliber team.
9. WASHINGTON STATE
Maybe the best news for Washington State is that Tony Bennett returns as coach. Many thought he may seize the opportunity to take over a more formidable program, but with most of the pieces intact from a school record 26 wins, he is poised to make some noise again. This team has a potent senior back court, and that is a key come tourney time. Kyle Weaver and Derrick Low combined for 25 points per game last season, and should see those numbers increase this season. Weaver is considered one of the most versatile players in the country while Low will be counted on for scoring. The wildcard may be C Aron Baynes. Baynes was injured a good part of the season, but as his health improved, so did his production as he became a double-digit scorer frequently down the stretch. Daven Hermiling at 6-7 becomes a match-up problem for most teams, as he connected from 43% beyond the arc. This is a very experienced team that now has tourney experience and should once again be a force in the Pac-10, as well as the national scene.
8. MICHIGAN STATE
The Spartans won 23 games last season and return all five starters and should be poised to break into the top 10 this season. Drew Neitzel scored 20+ in 17 games last season and is certainly going to be amongst the top players in the country this season. Raymar Morgan played his best basketball down the stretch, and his improvement should continue into his sophomore year. Coach Izzo is also bringing in a cast of talented freshman in Durrell Summers, Kallin Lucas and Chris Allen. Coach Izzo has said that with the added depth and quickness, he wants to get back to a pressure defense and run a lot more. If one or more of these freshman emerge as a heavy contributor, the Spartins will have to be dealt with in April.
7. GEORGETOWN
It may take the Hoyas a little time to overcome the departure of last season's Big East Player of the Year, Jeff Green. But don't feel too sorry for the Hoyas. They return a wealth of talent and a couple of heralded frosh that will have them back in the picture once again. It starts with Roy Hibbard who flirted with the NBA draft, but returns. He has become a presence inside on both ends of the court. DaJuan Summers could emerge now into the next Hoya star. Jonathon Wallace gives the Hoyas the deep threat, as he connected on 49% of his three-pointers last year. The Hoyas bring in Austin Freeman who is another excellent shooter and with him and Wallace on the perimeter and Hibbard inside, they will be tough to defend. Another newcomer Chris Wright is a candidate to play right away as well, and the Hoyas appear likely to duplicate a 30-win team from a year ago and be in the hunt for the Championship.
6. LOUISVILLE
Rick Pitino has assembled another talented team that lacked experience a year ago, and lost in the second round to a talented and experienced A&M team. This year Louisville will be one of the teams with both talent and experience. Last year's cast of talent included Jerry Smith, Earl Clark, Edgar Sosa and Derrick Caracter. Those four freshman contributed 36 ppg last season and all should make great strides this season. When you add in Palacios, Padgett and Williams to that group, they will have seven players that could all score double-digits on any given night. If you add freshman George Goode to the mix, the Cards will have plenty of depth, talent and experience to tackle a very strong schedule. This team, if they stay healthy, will challenge for a spot in the Final Four.
5. TENNESSEE
The Vols have lost just one player that made it to the Sweet 16 a year ago and look like the darlings of the SEC this season. Bruce Pearl has quickly gotten Tennessee basketball back in the upper tier of the SEC and perhaps beyond. The Vols are led by Chris Lofton, who on any given night can be the difference in a game. He's not afraid to put the team on his back and make a big shot. JaJuan Smith had a breakout season, scoring over 15 per game and adding 4.5 rpg as a guard. The Vols will add J.P. Prince, a gifted Arizona transfer, that will become eligible in December. This should be an explosive, quick team that will score in the 80s. The Vols could be vulnerable to a bigger team, but what they lack in that type of a game, they provide a problem for as well, as this team is going to run, run, run. The Vols have a chance for a special season, and will be a factor come tourney time.
4. MEMPHIS
One thing for sure is that John Calipari can recruit and coach. He took a UMass program from the dumpster and put it on the map. He is beginning to put that same signature on a once powerful Memphis program that went down with scandal. Enter the latest Calipari prize in 6-4 freshman G Derrick Rose, and a team loaded with talent is instantly better. Rose is a big-time scorer and could play the point or the 2, but brings a lot to the table. The Tigers have the inside presence of Joey Dorsey who can score, rebound and block shots. Chris Douglass-Roberts is an emerging star. The Tigers biggest problem may be the weak C-USA where they don't get tested night in and night out. This should be a 30-win team and a viable Final Four team.
3. KANSAS
The Jayhawks were an impressive 33-5 last season, and that was without a senior. Julian Wright is the only loss so they will return 13 of 14 of their top players. Brandon Rush underwent ACL surgery in the late spring, so he withdrew from the NBA draft. He is targeting December 1st as a return date, but as long as he gets back for March, this Kansas team has plenty of talent to make a run, even if he has a sub-par season. They will bring back 85%+ of their scoring and 80%+ of their rebounding from a year ago. Ateam that was full of inexperience last year will ride the wave of experience this season to be even better. Cole Aldridge made the top 5 list in all the big man ratings, and could toughen up the middle where the Jayhawks could use some strength and depth. If Aldridge adds to what is already here and Rush is playing well in March, this team has win-it-all potential.
2. NORTH CAROLINA
Last year's team was young but still managed to come within one shot of the Final Four. The biggest news came when Tyler Hansbrough shunned the NBA draft, and chose to return. The Heels will have the top center and the top PG in the ACC as Ty Lawson, last year's top assist man in the ACC, also returns. The Heels are a deep team and don't have to worry about fitting in new pieces, as Coach Williams did not sign a single player this season. The departure of Brandon Wright opens the door for Deon Thompson and Alex Stepheson, two players in waiting that have the talent to have breakout seasons. Wayne Ellington was streaky as a freshman, but the biggest leap by players usually comes in their sophomore season. We expect him to become a big-time scorer. All the pieces are in place to challenge for a Championship.
1. UCLA
It looks as though the Bruins are beginning to relive their glory days under Coach Wooden. They are loaded with talent with a nice blend of youth and experience. The Bruins return seven of their top eight scorers and add Kevin Love who is getting A+ early returns. That means Mata Real will spend a lot of time playing power forward, giving the Bruins a great inside tandem. Darren Collison quickly answered the PG question mark last season by being named outstanding player in the Maui Invitational. Most said if he left for the NBA draft, he could have been a first round pick. Josh Shipp will get a lot of the balls that went to Affalo last year, and he may prove to be more consistent. The Pac-10 is much improved, so the Bruins will stay sharp with lots of tests through the season, and we pick them to cut down the nets in April.
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Basketball Picks for the 2007-2008 season |