2007 NFL Predictions - High Units
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Below we present our six top picks for the season win totals. Our free 1 and 2 unit picks are available for your review as well.

2007 NFL Predictions - Team Win Totals - Best Bets

Our highest rated picks have gone 7-1 the past two years. Here are our top-rated picks for 2007...

Tennessee UNDER 7 Wins (4 units)
Tennessee is overrated. They apparently turned things around last season, jumping from 4 wins in 2005 to 8 last season. Once they switched to Vince Young, they went on a tear. While getting outscored 60-135 through their first five games, they were outscored by just one point (264-265) the rest of the way and finished on an 8-3 run. They have really turned things around, haven't they? Let's look deeper. Doesn't that 8-3 run strike you as a bit odd? They went 8-3 while being outscored. They pulled out some very unlikely wins. They rallied back from 21 down vs. the Giants, won on a last second 60 yard field goal vs. the Colts, and won on a long TD run in OT vs. Houston. The craziest win came against the Jaguars in a game in which Jacksonville had 18 more first downs (23-5) and 298 more yards (396-98) yet somehow gave the game to Tennessee. They could have very easily gone 6-5 or 5-6 in those 11 games and finished the season 6-10 or 5-11. Young caught teams off guard in 2006. Don't expect as much of that this year. NFL teams adjust very well. The Titans don't have much else in the way of offense. They lost their top two wide receivers and running backs! So if teams can stymie Young, the Titans may not score a whole lot. On defense, they lost their best player (Pacman Jones). Their schedule is brutal (third hardest in the league) as they face Jacksonville and Indianapolis twice, New Orleans, Carolina, Denver, Cincinnati, San Diego and Kansas City (in KC in December). To get to 8 wins, this team needs to win two of those games as well as avoid any upsets vs. the remainder of their schedule. Not gonna happen!

Jacksonville OVER 9 Wins (4 units)
The Jags fell from 12 wins in 2005 to 8 wins last year. This team has a knack for somehow not finishing with the record they deserve. In 2005, we believed them to be about as a good as an average 10 or 11 win team, not a 12 win team. Last year, they were definitely better than an 8-win team. Based on the quality of their team and their play, they were really more like a 10 or 11 win club. Yes, we think they were good enough to notch 11 wins last year. Heck, last year they inexplicably lost two games to Houston and you can bet that doesn't repeat this year - they will not suffer that embarrassment again. The Jags are especially tough at home. Last year they were 6-2 at home (one loss to Houston and one to New England), outscoring opponents 212-88. On the road, they lost to teams that they could have and should have beaten. This is a contract year for Byron Leftwich. He was injured last year but we expect much more from him this year. This team has no glaring weaknesses. They have a great defense (#2 last year) and solid running game. This season they only face 9 winning teams from last year including just 5 playoff teams. Their schedule includes very winnable games vs. Tennessee (2x), Atlanta, Houston (2x), Tampa Bay, Buffalo and Oakland. They matchup well with the only threat in their division - Indianapolis. If Leftwich has a decent season, this team could be challenging for the division title.

Green Bay UNDER 7.5 Wins (3 units)
Our top pick last year was Green Bay OVER 6.5 wins. They won 8 games. But were they really that good last season? They were better than most had pegged them but they really weren't that good. This season we expect them to take a step backwards and we don't see them getting more than 6 or 7 wins. This line of 7.5 is inflated, thanks to Green Bay's 4-0 finish and the way they "surprised" most people who expected them to really struggle last year. Their 8-8 finish was viewed by most as a real shocker and now the pendulum of public opinion has swung. The public now feels Green Bay maybe isn't that bad. But they are still mediocre. Brett Favre is yet another year older. They lost Ahman Green in the off-season and they still don't have a good answer at tight-end. They also lack depth at WR. Their offense looks mediocre at best. And, their defense was a sieve at times last year. They allowed 24+ points nine times! Favre wanted to get Randy Moss and right now he seems a bit peeved. Things don't feel very rosy in the Bay right now. While they do have a fairly easy schedule, we think they have an off year and come in at 7 wins or less.

Indianapolis UNDER 11 Wins (3 units)
What can you say about the Colts? Last year they reversed their normal trend. In years past, they would put together an incredible regular season and then choke in the playoffs. Last year they put less emphasis on the regular season, were much less dominant (fewer blowouts) and lost four of their last seven games. But they won in the playoffs and crushed the Bears to win the Super Bowl. Can they repeat with another 12-win performance? We think not. The pressure is off this team. They have finally proven themselves. And, their approach from last year (win in January vs. blow teams out in September-December) worked. We believe they will focus even less this season on winning in the regular season as compared to years' past. While their offense remains the most potent in the NFL, their already suspect defense was weakened in free agency. They will also have all teams gunning for them. They face a very tough schedule (4th hardest) including Denver, New Orleans, Jacksonville twice, Carolina, New England, San Diego and Baltimore. To get to 12 wins, they must win half of those eight games as well as all of their other games. They could lose all eight of those. It's not likely, but it could happen. The chances they win 4 or more of those 8 games, versus those opponents are slim in our minds. And, that also assumes no upset losses along the way vs. their other opponents. While they are Super Bowl champs, consider that they could have (should have) lost to New England in the Conference Finals and avoided having to face the Chargers. Once they got to the big game, they faced wha turned out to be a very weak opponent in Chicago. Don't get us wrong... The Colts are a very good football team with an amazing offense. But to expect 12 wins from this team is a real stretch. Over the last 13 years, Super Bowl winners have lost an average of 2.1 games more in the year following their Super Bowl win than their Super Bowl year.

New Orleans UNDER 9.5 Wins (3 units)
New Orleans was the big "gainer" in 2006 jumping from 3 wins in 2005 to 10 wins. They made it deep into the playoffs and were the feel good story of the year. They were in fact the first NFL team to go from 13+ losses to the NFL Conference Championship. Drew Brees was awesome and Reggie Bush didn't dissapoint. Their defense was much improved, giving up just 20.1 points per game after being unable to stop anyone in 2005. As a result, the media and many fans are in love with this team which can mean only one thing - they are a bit overrated. Can they repeat their 2006 performance and again win double-digit games? We think it will be tough. They will sneak up on no one this year - opponents will be ready. Their defense still isn't that good. We think it overachieved last year and could drop this year. Teams that win over 9 games tend to drop back down the following year. The oddsmakers are saying this team will win the same or more and we think that's a stretch.

New York Jets UNDER 8.5 Wins (3 units)
The Jets were a bit lucky in 2006. We picked the Jets to win more than 6 games last year and they did not dissapoint, winning 10 after finishing 2005 with just 4 wins. This year we are flipping our pick on the Jets. They were not really a 10-win team last season. They should have won about 8 in our estimation. They were exceptionally healthy last year which can't be projected to this year. This year we think they probably win 7 and getting to 9 is a monster stretch. They are still rebuilding. Adding Thomas Jones is a plus and Eric Mangini was a pleasant surprise. But, the reality is that this is still a mediocre team with a lack of depth and inexperienced coaches. They were ranked 25th in offense last year and 18th on defense. They have two rookies starting on the offensive line which is NOT a good thing in the NFL. They start the year with a brutal schedule facing four playoff teams in their first six games (New England, Baltimore, New York Giants and Philadelphia). They then go to Cincinnati. This team could easily start the season 2-5. They have a stretch later on of four road games in five weeks. After winning 10 games last year and being in a huge market, why does this team have only one scheduled primetime game? NFL and TV execs know what we know - they really aren't that good. They have to face the fourth toughest schedule this year including 10 winning teams from last year. They could be in real trouble.

That's it! Good luck to you on these bets and we look forward to continuing to serve you throughout the NFL preseason, regular season and playoffs!