New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay goes for the sweep over the Mets, who have lost six of nine, including 3-1 on Saturday when pinch hitter Austin Shenton walked to force in the go-ahead run in the Tampa Bay eighth. New York is 17-32 its past 49 games on the road following a loss and Luis Severino's teams are 9-24 when he starts on the road with the moneyline between +125 to -125. Ryan Pepiot has allowed only 12 runs in 34 2/3 innings for Tampa Bay, including a 1-0 victory over Milwaukee on Monday when he pitched six shutout innings on two hits. The Mets have lost eight interleague road games in a row versus teams with losing records dating to last season and they are 0-6 their past six overall as underdogs this year. Take the Rays as a Max Play.

Tampa Bay jumped out to a 9-3 lead and held on for a 10-8 win over the Mets on Friday night. Johnny DeLuca had three RBIs in his season sebut for the Rays after being sidelined by a broken right hand. Zack Littell will be on the mound for Tampa Bay tonight with a 3.27 ERA and he allowed two runs in six innings against the Chicago White Sox on Sunday. New York has alternated wins and losses its past seven games and it has given up 16 runs its past two games. Christian Scott will make his MLB debut for the Mets, who have lost eight of their past 12 games. Scott has a 3.20 ERA in Triple-A this season. The Mets have lost 22 of 29 Saturday games dating to last season. Take the Rays as a Max Play.

New York is on a 4-7 run despite playing the last seven at home. The offense is 17th in runs scored, 14th in on-base percentage, and 18th in slugging. Jose Quintana is allowing a few too many free passes (15 walks in 33+ innings) and has a 5.06 ERA on the road. The Mets are 25-51 as an underdog, including 15-36 as a road dog. While the Mets played yesterday, the Rays are working on a day of rest. Tampa Bay is sixth in the majors in stolen bases and is 21-5 at home against catchers who allow 0.85+ steals per game. Starter Aaron Civale has a 2.50 ERA at home where he's holding batters to a .200 average. With the Rays 18-6 after scoring two or fewer runs in two straight contests, back home field. Play Tampa Bay as a Max Play. 

The Tampa Bay Rays have surprised everyone with their amazing 31-12 start, but things have not been quite so easy of late. The Rays have had a very easy schedule, and on the season they are just 11-9 vs a winning team and 14-10 vs. a team that is .450 or better. They are 17-2 against teams below .450. The Mets have underachieved so far at 21-23, so I think we get some value here. This series is even at 1-1 so there's a lot at stake in this one. Tampa Bay is just 3-5 in their last eight, and I'm backing the home side to close this out. Make the play on the NY Mets.